Signs that Russia and Iran are starting to feel the "40 dollars/barrel" pain

Boris Kagarlitsky from Moscow Times:

"In starting their latest campaign against used imported cars, government officials were prepared to encounter protests. They knew that there would be demonstrations in Vladivostok. What's the big deal? Let them yell and scream a bit, and then they'll settle down again.

The unpleasantness of having to deal with a little dissatisfaction from residents in the Far East is nothing in comparison to the problem of trying to save Russia's car industry. Factories are shutting down, companies are crippled with debt, and cars are not selling. The measures that the government is taking are unlikely to change the situation. It is far from certain that higher tariffs and a ban on importing cars with right-hand steering wheels will lead to sharply increased demand for new Russian models -- after all, consumers' buying power is falling because of the crisis, and banks are not giving out loans as freely as before. People will simply buy fewer cars than before.

What's more, the political fallout brought on by the new measures outweighs whatever benefits they might eventually provide for the economy. The flurry of protests that broke out in Siberia and the Far East were on such a scale that they can no longer be considered only isolated affairs. There were demonstrations across all of Russia, including Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, where a significant number of drivers also own used imports. As might have been expected, the protests in Vladivostok were the most dramatic, including clashes with riot police and a blockade of the airport. It was revealing that a major protest was also held last week in Novosibirsk, a city that the authorities had considered quiet and less prone to activism.

Aside from mass protests by pensioners in 2005, Russia has not seen anything like these nationwide protests before. All past efforts by protest organizers to urge nationwide turnouts have ended with small and ineffective demonstrations. There have been frequent rallies for this or that cause, but the number of attendees never exceeded a few hundred. Not a single local flare-up of discontent ever escalated into a serious problem prompting intervention by law enforcement agencies, and they definitely did not represent a threat to political stability.

It appears that the government's decision has unintentionally created an occasion not only for protest, but for disenchanted citizens to mobilize. Demonstrating motorists began shouting radical slogans that clearly had no direct connection with the problem of higher tariffs. They were not calling for the authorities to reconsider their decision, but for the current leadership to step down".

And Yevgeny Kiselyov, also from Moscow Times:

"Under a new amendment to the law on treason, which was sent to the State Duma on Dec. 12 for approval, I could get 12 to 20 years in prison for the article you are about to read.

The changes would give authorities extremely wide latitude to interpret what constitutes treason. This is how the old definition of treason reads: "a hostile act directed at damaging the external security of the Russian Federation." If the Duma approves the new amendment, the phrase "hostile act" would read simply "act," and "external security" would be broadened to "security." In addition, treason would also include the following activities: "rendering financial, technical, consultative or other assistance to a foreign state, international or foreign organizations or their representatives in activities directed against the security of the Russian Federation, including its constitutional order, sovereignty and territorial and state integrity."It is not surprising that the authorities cannot explain why these changes are necessary. They only offer a vague explanation that the current wording in the Criminal Code makes it extremely difficult for investigative agencies to prove the guilt of suspected traitors -- as if the law needs to be rewritten to help prosecutor's increase their conviction ratio.

Human rights advocates are in shock. The definition of an "act" of treason is so loosely defined that prosecutors and law enforcement agencies can interpret it any way they see fit. Moreover, even inactivity could qualify as an "act" of treason. Imagine that a journalist or political commentator submits to the foreign press an article that criticizes the constitutional amendment to extend the presidential term from four to six years or expresses the same idea to a foreign diplomat during an embassy reception. That could easily qualify under the new law as consulting a foreign organization on a subject directed against Russia's "constitutional order."

From France Presse:
"Iranian police shut down the office of a human rights group headed by Nobel peace laureate Shirin Ebadi on Sunday, the deputy head of the Human Rights Defenders Centre, Narges Mohammadi, told AFP".